Fewer than 10% of jobs in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan face near-term automation risk, while AI could raise productivity in 13% to 20% of jobs, according to From Divide to Opportunity: AI, Jobs, and Growth, published by the World Bank on 6 October 2026.
About the report
| Publisher | World Bank, Office of the Chief Economist for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan |
| Released | 6 October 2026 |
| Title | MENAAP Economic Update, October 2026: From Divide to Opportunity: AI, Jobs, and Growth |
| Data covered | The region’s 2026 economic outlook plus a chapter on AI’s effect on jobs and productivity |
| Latest edition? | Yes, published twice a year, latest as of November 2026 |
Key findings
- The World Bank estimates that fewer than 10% of jobs in the region face near-term automation risk, and that AI is more likely to complement than replace workers in the near term.
- AI could increase productivity in 13% to 20% of jobs, especially in the service sector, the report finds.
- The report names three gaps that stand between the region and these gains: a localization gap (regional languages are underrepresented in AI training data), a usage gap, and a foundational capital gap in physical and human capital, according to the World Bank.
- The share of LinkedIn members with AI engineering skills more than tripled between 2016 and 2025 in Bahrain, Jordan, Morocco, Pakistan and Tunisia, but much of this talent migrates: GCC countries are net importers of AI talent while several middle-income economies are net exporters, the report shows.
- Regional output is projected to contract by 2.1% in 2026 after growing 3.3% in 2025, driven by the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to the World Bank.
| Indicator (World Bank, October 2026) | Value |
|---|---|
| Jobs at near-term automation risk | Fewer than 10% |
| Jobs where AI could raise productivity | 13% to 20% |
| Regional growth, 2025 | 3.3% |
| Projected regional growth, 2026 | −2.1% |
What this means for digital skills builders in the region
Fear of replacement is overstated; competition on productivity is real. When jobs AI can augment roughly double the jobs it threatens, the worker who masters AI tools in their own role comes out ahead. Services, from accounting to customer support, are where this shift plays out.
Arabic data and content are a skill in demand. The localization gap the World Bank describes means models need data and content in regional languages. People who can prepare Arabic datasets and judge the quality of Arabic output hold a rare skill.
Access alone is not enough. The usage gap means many people have the tools but do not use them well. The fix is practical: short exercises on real tasks from your own work, not long theory courses.
AI engineering skills open Gulf markets. The growth of these skills in Morocco, Tunisia and Jordan, and their flow toward the Gulf, confirms real demand. Build them step by step with our practical guides.
📥 Full report: Read From Divide to Opportunity for free on the World Bank website.
FAQ
The World Bank, as the October 2026 edition of its Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan Economic Update.
Fewer than 10% of jobs face near-term automation risk, according to the World Bank.
The localization gap, the usage gap and the foundational capital gap.
Yes, the October 2026 edition is the latest as of November 2026.
